Bulletins

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2010 - October

MARKET COMMENTARY

Copper hit 27-month highs at the beginning of this week, coming within striking distance of a record set in London futures, although the dollar's rebound weighed on New York prices of the metal. Benchmark copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange closed up $198 at $8,858 a tonne. During the LME session, it hit a high of $8,875 a tonne, not far from the record high of $8,940 touched in July 2008. On the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for December delivery settled up 2.2 percent at $4.0290 a lb after running up to $4.0475. But in after-hours trade, it fell to as low as $3.9275 per lb as the dollar climbed sharply, buoyed by higher U.S. bond yields.

Gold and crude oil also lost early gains on the dollar's rebound. "The selloff started because the market had gone too far, too fast," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Chicago's Integrated Brokerage Services LLC. He was echoing some analysts who said the rally in commodities had been overdone since the Federal Reserve said last week it hoped to bolster U.S. economic growth through a new round of monetary easing worth $600 billion.

"We don't see any chance that the United States, euro zone nations, or Japan would pull out of easy monetary policies any time soon, so inflation worries will continue to be a reason for speculative trades." Edward Meir, base metals analyst for MF Global in New York, concurred with that. "We suspect that lingering misgivings about the Fed's QE2 move (second bout of quantitative easing) is also fuelling the general aversion away from paper currencies and into hard assets," Meir said.

Copper fell 1 percent in London on 10th of Nov as the market retreated from near record highs under the weight of a firm dollar, weak Chinese import data and concerns recent commodity price gains were too steep. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell $88 to $8,770, off the previous session's 27-month high of $8,884, and the record price of $8,940 struck in July 2008. Benchmark third-month Shanghai copper dipped 0.6 percent to 67,290 yuan. China trade numbers came in on the soft side with October's imports of copper and copper scrap both down by about 25 percent from September.

Some of the support for copper prices came from a strike by union workers at Chile's Collahuasi, the world's No. 3 copper mine. The strike headed into its fifth day, with no sign of resolution. The mine's owners said deliveries had not been affected. But industry sources indicated they expected some impact soon on supply from the work stoppage. Worries about copper supplies in the near term pushed the metal into a $5 a tonne backwardation -- a premium for cash material over the three-month contract compared with a discount of $20 a tonne in late October.

London copper increased almost 7.6 percent in October 2010 at $8,292.40 when compared to LME average of September 2010. It has also risen $3,000 approx or 45 percent from June 08 to Nov 09. Standard Bank has raised its 2011 copper price forecast by $300 per tonne to $8,200 and maintained its predictions for higher levels for other metals next year.

The current level of resistance is $8884 and support is $8600.
 


İndir

2010 - September

MARKET COMMENTARY

London copper hits new 26-mth peak, while tin hit a record high and other metals jumped, on expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve monetary easing.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose $108 to $8,283 a tonne and earlier touched $8,300, its highest since July 2008 (Copper hit a record $8,940 in July 2008).

"Copper is looking good, we have broken through some pretty tough areas ... and once again we are getting into areas that we haven't seen for a while," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services. He added that supply worries in copper and tin support sentiment, and commodities are attracting the attention of funds keen to put cheap cash to work.

Equities extended gains and the dollar held near lows after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly cut interest rates on 05th of Oct, fueling speculation that other central banks may take additional action to boost economies with cheap money.

Gold, silver and platinum prices also rallied to new highs -- a record peak for gold, three-decade high for silver and platinum's strongest in around five months. LME aluminium rose to $2,400.50, while zinc touched $2,336, the highest for both metals since April. Nickel rose to $24,995, its highest since May.

Chinese markets have been shut since Friday for week-long National Day celebrations and will open on Oct. 8. "The Chinese would be natural sellers into this kind of strength. But looking ahead to their return there is a risk they will try to chase prices, even though it goes against common sense," the Singapore trade said. When Shanghai closed last Thursday, LME copper stood at a little over $8,000 and since then it has rallied by around 3 percent.

London copper increased almost 5.8 percent in September 2010 at $7,709.30 when compared to LME average of August 2010. It has risen $1,000 or 14 percent from Aug 26 to Sept 30. In the same period, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper went from 57,100 yuan to 60,600 yuan, a rise of 6 percent. Goldman Sachs expects the price of copper to rise 40 percent by the end of 2011, with a 12-month forecast of $11,000 per tonne.

The current level of resistance is $8399 and support is $8190.
 


İndir

2010 - August

MARKET COMMENTARY

Last Thursday, LME copper pared losses rising back to $7150 before the SHFE started trading. SH metal prices opened up strong, supported by the rebound in equity market and weak dollar. We saw substantial arbitrage buying interest from the Chinese. On Friday SHFE and LME markets were subdued. Prices moved within a narrow range in the morning. Midday, US Q2 GDP figures were better than expected raising the mood in the market, however keeping prices in their established ranges. Bernanke's speech prompted some choppy trading after investors digested his comments. The metals complex retreated only to sky rocket towards the end of the trading day, as shorts were covering their positions ahead on the UK bank holiday. Copper traded at $7448. Euro picked up to around 1.2760 and Dow Jones recovered to above 10000.

This week, LME metals rose, driven by the news of China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising in August to a three-month high of 51.7 from 51.2 in July. This indicates an improvement, even though moderate in the manufacturing sector. Copper made a significant break through $7500. Midday, US August ISM manufacturing figures came out better than expected, lifting the Dow Jones index to the high of 10264. The metals complex grew on the back of the spike in optimism. Copper traded at $7619 and touched a fresh four-month peak.

In August LME copper increased almost 8.1 percent at $ 7,285.93 when compared to LME average of July 2010. Today, 3M copper is traded in the range $7600-$7675. Following the overnight strength in LME, SHFE copper opened high at 60110 and the price rose to 60370 in the early AM session, but the upside was capped because market investors show some worries about the US employment data released on Friday.

The current level of resistance is $7700 and support is $7400.

Today we are on the lookout out for jobless claims, pending home sales and factory orders & durable goods data from the US.
 


İndir

2010 - July

MARKET COMMENTARY

LME copper increased almost 3.6 percent in July 2010 at $ 6,735.25 when compared to LME average of June 2010.

After reaching $ 7,490 per ton points at the beginning of August, copper drifted lower as poor U.S. data in the previous session stoked concerns about the strength of the economic recovery, which prompted investors to cash in profits from a recent rally. Data also weighed on the equity markets, where European shares fell, tracking their Asian peers and following losses on Wall Street.

Firstly copper for three months delivery on the London Metal Exchange fell to $ 7,370 a tonne from $7,425 a tonne on Tuesday and it rose again to $ 7,495 today after positif U.S. data. "The U.S. data's been used as an excuse to take profits," said analyst David Wilson at Societe Generale. "I don't think it was unexpected that U.S. data was going to be slow in July. It will probably be so in August as well." In Europe, economic data was not rosy either. Euro zone retail trade was flat in June after a rebound in May, depressed by declining sales of food and drinks, figures showed. The data points to soft consumer spending, which may stall the economic recovery. "We're being very much driven by news flow and data releases lately," Wilson said. The market awaits U.S. jobs data on Friday that are likely to provide more clues about the health of the economy and direction for currency and metals markets.

"The economic data is part of the story, but you'll have to admit that demand is still there, and stocks and supply is getting tighter and tighter," said Tiger Shi, head of metals, Asia-Pacific, at Newedge Group. He expects copper to test the $8,000 level. The copper market is seen tightening despite a slowdown in demand from China, leading to a balanced global market this year, said the head of Xstrata's copper division, the world's fourth-biggest producer of the metal.

LME copper is expected to fall to $7,200 per tonne as a five-wave cycle has been completed at the Monday high of $7,500, according to Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst.
 


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May 2010

MARKET COMMENTARY


LME copper fell almost 13 percent in May 2010 when compared to LME average of April 2010 that Chinese demand growth will disappoint and that the eurozone debt crisis will spread.

Copper outlook is now weak after sharp technical sell-off. London metals dropped sharply late on 03 June 2010, with copper going from $4 up to $140 lower in the final 30 minute of the open outcry kerb session. "Copper hit stops at $6,600 and got hammered in the kerb. Technical pressure is building for these markets. We reckon we could see more weakness, targeting $6,415 and possibly $4,700," a trader in Sydney said. "The signals out of China are fairly negative. There is too much trouble in the world for copper to trade at $7,000."

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose $45 to $6,570 by 0334 GMT today, while benchmark third-month Shanghai copper ended the morning session 1.7 percent weaker at 52,960 yuan. LME copper is on track for a weekly loss of more than 5 percent, the market's seventh decline in eight weeks. Weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data added to existing worries that efforts by China to curb growth would undermine demand for raw materials. However, other data came in more strongly. U.S. private sector employers added jobs in May and the economy's dominant services sector increased payrolls for the first time in more than two years, building evidence that the labour market was picking up steam.
 


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April 2010

MARKET COMMENTARY

Industrial metals slid on 12th May 2010 on doubts about a $1 trillion emergency rescue plan to stabilise the euro, and the longer-term demand outlook in Europe and in China, the world's largest consumer. Copper for three-month's delivery on the London Metal Exchange traded at $6,910 a tonne in official rings from a close of $7,120 per ton on 10th May 2010 when the metal used in power and construction rose $180 per ton.

Nickel and lead earlier fell more than 5 percent, while zinc and aluminium fell more about 4 percent and copper fell nearly 3 percent. "The markets are being a bit cynical and rightly so," Alex Heath, head of base metals at London's RBC Capital Markets, said of the rescue package. There is an awful lot of hard work and belt-tightening to be done," he added. "The markets have factored in a recovery that hasn't been achieved yet." Copper fell to as low as $6,632.75 last week, its weakest since mid February, on concerns that debt problems in Greece could spread to other countries and as equities skidded. Also pressuring metals, the euro and other major currencies fell against the dollar, making dollar-priced metals costlier for non-U.S. investors.


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