Bulletins

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MonthlyCopperBulletin-September

MARKET COMMENTARY 

London copper prices hit their highest in more than two years on the first day of September after data showed top consumer China saw a strong expansion in manufacturing activity in August.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange jumped to $6,830 a tonne. But copper eased on the second day of September from a 26-month high hit in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar firmed and comments by a Peruvian government official eased concerns over supply from world's No. 2 producer. Making greenback-traded metals more expensive to buyers using other currencies, the dollar bounced off two-year lows on solid U.S. manufacturing data. Copper fell to $6,547 a tonne after the dollar strengthened on 3d oh September. Copper is often used as a gauge of global economic health.

Datas of first week showed solid growth in China's manufacturing and services sectors, boosting hopes that the world's second biggest economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Copper prices gained on 4th September as low inventories in exchange warehouses, disrupted ore supplies and solid economic recovery in top consumer China lent support.

LME copper fluctuated in the band $6609-$6830  between September 07-17. Notwithstanding headwinds arising from the intensifying rift between Washington and Beijing, economic stimulus measures across the world continue to support prices of copper,seen as a gauge of global economic health.The metal has gained more than 40% since March and is the best performing base metal this year so far.

"Copper looks well supported by both demand and supply," said commodity strategists at ANZ in a note. "Ample stimulus is paving the way for strong consumption, while mining disruptions are keeping supply tight."  Analysts at CRU estimate Chinese demand dropped 15% in the first quarter due to COVID-19. "But there has been a strong recovery in the second quarter. We expect Chinese refined copper demand will grow 1-2% this year." "Copper should remain supported in the mid $6,000s. Much of the risk in the short term comes from non-copper specific factors, namely the dollar, further fund inflows, government stimulus measures or the progression of Covid-19."

London copper fell by the most in seven sessions on 17th September to $6,676 as the dollar climbed after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it expected the post-coronavirus recovery to gain steam in the world's largest economy. London copper hit a more than two-year high on 18th September, buoyed by a weaker dollar and strong fund buying on hopes that Chinese stimulus would spur demand in the world's biggest metals consumer. London copper gained more ground on 21th September, climbing to its highest in more than two years ($6878), as a recovery in China's industrial production underpinned prices.

The global economy appears to be recovering from the coronavirus slump faster than thought only a few months ago, thanks to improving outlooks for China and the United States, the OECD said.

Physical copper premiums in China continued to fall, losing $4.50 to $59 a tonne, data showed, extending a decline from highs of $100 six weeks ago. That was the lowest level since the start of April.

LME copper stocks available for purchase dropped by 25% on 21st September. Total LME stocks remain at levels not seen since 2005. Despite that, official prices closed lower in the last session, thanks to markets reducing risk as global coronavirus cases rise. But copper prices declined on 21th September after tested $6,878 as a strengthening U.S. dollar made greenback-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell to $6449 a tonne on 24th Sept. "It's the strong U.S. dollar (behind copper's price fall).

London copper edged up the last days of September as solid manufacturing and services data from top consumer China boosted optimism, but a stronger U.S. dollar capped gains. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed to September on $6,686. 



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MonthlyCopperBulletin-May

MARKET COMMENTARY 

Even though copper made a weak start to the month of ay,  the rest of the month also copper prices rose. London copper prices was slipped to a near two-week low on 4th of May on fears of excess supply, as some producers looked set to resume operations and demand took a hit from the coronavirus outbreak. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to $5,060 a tonne by, its lowest since April 22.

Industrial metals prices advanced on remaining of the May on hopes for a pick up in economic activity as some U.S. states laid out plans to ease coronavirus-driven restrictions. Also Copper rose on a, buoyed by a rebound in China's demand for the manufacturing material and an unexpected rise in the country's overall exports in April.

China's April exports rose 3.5% from a year earlier, marking the first positive growth since December last year, customs data showed. China's unwrought copper imports rose 4.3% in April from the prior month, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data, boosted by an economic recovery from the coronavirus outbreak and favourable prices.

Gains in copper, however, were capped by simmering trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. Some countries have announced plans to gradually remove restrictions that were imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic, and governments around the world have been providing stimulus programmes to support their ailing economies.

London copper boosted by expectations of better demand for metals as certain countries started to ease lockdowns put in place to curb the coronavirus pandemic. Australia, France and Spain are slowly opening their economies, while the United Kingdom - which has the second-highest virus death toll in the world - introduced some limited easing of restrictions.

Copper, used as a gauge of global economic health, has leaped 19% on the LME since March 19, when the contract hit a 45-month low, on improved demand from top consumer China, supply shortage worries and hopes for a pick up in global economy. LME copper, as demand for the red metal was still under pressure to what many describe as a long and bumpy road to recovery ahead.

Copper prices declined on week of 11-15 May as traders fretted about signs of a second wave of coronavirus infections that could add more pressure to the already-hit global economy. Copper prices extend losses after the U.S. Federal Reserve chief warned of an "extended period" of weak economic growth, sparking concerns of lean demand for the metal.

Copper prices climbed on 18th of May as the reopening of economies paralyzed by the coronavirus crisis boosted hopes of a revival in demand for metals.

Copper prices retreated from a two-month high on 21th of May as worries about the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic offset optimism over a potential vaccine. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed to $5,464 a tonne. The last wee of May Copper prices fell on Wednesday as Sino-U.S. friction over Hong Kong quashed initial euphoria following the easing of lockdown restrictions in many countries. London Metal Exchange (LME) ended the May from  $6,097.53 level with %3.8 monthly advantage.

 



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MonthlyCopperBulletin-Jan

MARKET COMMENTARY 

London copper started the year on a positive note after U.S. President Donald Trump set a date for signing a Phase 1 trade deal with China, top producer Chile's output fell and Beijing cut banks' reserve requirements. China's central bank (PBOC) cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, releasing about 800 billion Yuan ($114.91 billion) in funds to shore up its slowing economy. Copper prices improved further on optimism that the world's top metals consumer would also sign a phase 1 trade deal with the United States on 15th of January. London copper steadied second week of Jan., lifted by low inventories and tight supplies amid concerns about any impact from Iran's strike on U.S. forces, while a weaker dollar also supported prices. London copper continued to moved higher as most industrial metals rallied on signs that Iran and the United States were keen to de-escalate the Middle East standoff.

Washington and Beijing signed a Phase 1 trade deal on 15th January that will roll back some tariffs and boost Chinese purchases of U.S. products, defusing an 18-month row that has hurt global economic growth and metals demand. After the deal copper edged up to $6343 on 16th of Jan. But investors are worried that the pact would not substantially boost metals demand as the deal left a number of sore spots unresolved, while demand has not improved significantly to support prices.  Industrial metals started to fell on 17th of Jan, pulled lower as negative sentiment spilled over from stock markets.

After person-to-person transmission of a new virus was confirmed in China oh 21st of January, and following a rating downgrade for Hong Kong.  The new virus causes a type of pneumonia and belongs to the same family of coronaviruses as SARS. The deaths from the new flu-like coronavirus, started in Wuhan city in China. London copper, falling for a 12th straight session, as a jump in inventories and the spread of a flu-like virus in top metals consumer China weighed on prices. China was locked down some cities to constrain the virus, feared to spread even faster as millions of Chinese travel during their Lunar New Year holiday (started to 24th of Jan). The Chinese government, as a result, said it would extend the week-long Lunar New Year holiday by three days to Feb. 2 in a bid to slow the virus spreading. China is the world's biggest copper consumer and a major user of many other metals. Fears that the epidemic would stall economic activities have dented metals demand.

London copper recorded for their biggest monthly decline in eight months as the coronavirus epidemic raised fears of a slowdown in demand from top metals consumer China. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has fallen 9.8% so far in the month, for its sharpest drop since May 2019.

 



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MonthlyCopperBulletin-Oct.

  MARKET COMMENTARY 

Copper prices are widely used as a gauge of economic health, which has been hurt by the prolonged trade war between the United States and China has hurt global growth outlook and demand for the red metal, as well as volatilities caused by the lengthy Brexit negotiations.

In early October, the U.S. dollar index was at its highest (99.667) since May 2017, making metals priced in the U.S. dollar including those on the LME more expensive for users of other currencies. The LME copper fell to $5588, its lowest since May 2017, on first day of October due to a stronger dollar, but trading was thin as traders in top consumer China went on a long holiday. The United States on 2nd October said it would slap 10% tariffs on European-made Airbus planes and 25% duties on French wine, Scotch and Irish whiskies, and cheese from across the continent as punishment for illegal EU aircraft subsidies. The dollar start to eased on Thursday, sliding to fresh one-week lows against the euro and yen as investor anxiety deepened over fresh signs of slowing U.S. economic growth and a broadening of global trade friction. The discount for cash copper versus three-month metal on the LME rose to $35 first week of October, the most since August last year, pointing to plentiful availability.

London copper advanced after 9th October following U.S. President Donald Trump described trade talks with China as "very good", raising hopes of breakthrough in the tariff war between the world's two biggest economies. But gains were limited as the markets remained cautious about prospects of a deal between the two biggest global economies until the second half of October.  London copper rose on  $5941.5 (the highest since 16th Sept.) 29th October because of worries of a supply disruption in Chile, the world's biggest producer, lent some support. But LME copper gave back soma gains because of weak China data and anxious about China-US trade deal.London copper has been closed October with gains %1.65.

 



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MonthlyCopperBulletin-May

MARKET COMMENTARY

Copper prices dropped on May, pressured by concerns over the outlook for the global economy and metals demand as Washington and Beijing struggled to salvage a deal to end a bitter trade war. The trade conflict between the world's top two economies escalated on first wee on May with the United States hiking tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods after President Donald Trump said Beijing "broke the deal" by reneging on earlier commitments made during months of negotiations. Beijing has called on Washington to show "sincerity" if it is to hold meaningful trade talks, after the United States put China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, the world's biggest telecoms equipment maker, on a trade blacklist.

Investors remained cautious after weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial output data. The figures for April largely pointed to a loss of momentum, after surprisingly upbeat March readings had raised hopes the economy was slowly getting back onto a firmer footing and would require less policy support.

The last week of May London copper prices find support as a new blockade at MMG Ltd's Las Bambas mine in Peru lent support to prices, although gains were capped by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. On 31th of May LME coper edged down to 5 months low to .$5812.5. 3m LME copper closed May with a loss of 9.5%.

London copper made weak start to June because of the negative datas. Growth in U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in May to its weakest pace in over two years as factory managers raised concerns about a trade war between the United States and China, a national survey showed. Manufacturing activity in the euro zone contracted for a fourth month in May and at a faster pace, as the U.S.-China trade war, slumping automotive demand, Brexit and wider geopolitical uncertainty took their toll, a survey showed. LME copper edged down to $5740 on 7th of June because of trade dispute, signs of slowing economic growth and dissappointing US jobsa data weakened the demand outlooks for metals.

The direction of the wind changed with strike and Fed definitions. Copper prices rose last week supported by supply disruptions as a labour strike halved output at one of the world's largest mines in Chile and Glencore's Zambian smelter shut for refurbishmentThe Codelco-owned Chuquicamata mine, which produced 320,744 tonnes of copper in 2018, headed for its fourth day of a stoppage after a failed labour deal a week before. In Zambia, Mopani Copper Mines has shut down its Mufulira smelter for major refurbishment, the Glencore-owned company said late on 17th June.

The U.S. Fed on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, but said the case for lower rates was building, suggesting it could ease monetary policy as early as next month amid rising trade tensions and concerns about weak inflation.The dollar index eased against a basket of six major currencies. A weaker USD offset some concerns about the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. Reports of the call between the two presidents suggested that their meeting at the G20 would only cover strategic issues, raising concerns that an agreement was still some way off. After tested $6027 level last week, LME copper start new week with $5915-6035 band.



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Monthly Copper Bulletin-February 2019

  MARKET COMMENTARY 

Copper moved steadily higher during February, getting to an eight-month high towards month-end. The metal has been a primary beneficiary of growing optimism surrounding the US/Chinese trade talks, but the fact that LME inventories have also been shrinking of late has also helped the rally. CRU notes that aggregate exchange inventories (COMEX, LME and SHFE) still remain at four-year lows. Meanwhile, refined copper and concentrate imports into China are running at a brisk pace.

The last days of March, we saw the positive impact of the US/Chinese trade talks will start to wane as many markets have largely discounted a deal by already moving higher. Market focus should revert back to the deteriorating macro situation where in copper’s case, the situation in

China will be of primary interest. London copper and most other base metals rose on 21.03.2019, backed by a softer dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve abandoned plans for a further rate rise this year, and by a lack of near-term supply. LME copper edged up to $6555.5 having touched a near nine months high.  But  most base metals fell on this week as investors worried about the prospect of a recession in the United States, the world's biggest economy. Concerns of weaker economic growth are likely to keep downward pressure on commodities for the time being. Three-month LME copper is trading on $6360 now.

 



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Monthly Copper Bulletin-January 2019

   MARKET COMMENTARY 

Copper traded roughly within a $6000/ton range between early December to mid-January, with prices fluctuating between $5725–$6199 in January. No doubt, the more optimistic tone generated by the recently concluded US/Chinese trade talks have helped stabilize copper of late, although growing macro weakness in China will likely keep a more significant rally in check. The latest Chinese PMI numbers (both the official and private readings)have dipped into contraction territory for the first time in years. These are correlate quite significantly with copper prices, perhaps better than almost any other indicator we have seen.

Meanwhile, the latest ICSG numbers has the global refined copper market in a 595,000-ton deficit through September of last year compared with a 226,000-ton-deficit in the same period a year earlier. The ICSG’s deficit reading to be excessively high and expect the 2018 number to fall from where the ICSG has it once the year is complete.

In other ke developments, Chile's copper production recovered nicely in 2018, increasing 6% year-to-date through November. Given that China has been reducing its scrap imports considerably for much of the past two years, we suspect that Chilean refined units will find a ready home going into China as substitute material for scrap and so the increase in Chilean production should readily be absorbed China imported 4.87 million tons of unwrought copper in the first eleven months of 2018, an increase of 14.9% from a year earlier; ores and conc imports reached 18.25 million year-to-date through November, up 16.4% year-on-year.

The ShFE was closed between 04.02.2019-08.02.2019 session for China's Lunar New Year holiday, re-opening today (on Feb. 11). LME Copper prices were supported by easing U.S.-China trade tension. The first week of Feb copper reached $6,289.5 a tonne although concerns over slowing factory activity in China limited gains (while China was closed). The trade volume was very low. LME closed down 0.83 %at $6,201.5 a tonne on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he did not plan to meet China's Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline for the two countries to achieve a trade deal. LME copper closed first week of February with 1% weekly gain.

Today Chinese trader turn back and copper edged down 1.02 % on profit taking. There are no ECB and FED meetings on February. We have been waiting March 1 deadline for the two countries (China and US) to achieve a trade deal. If China and the US agree on March 1, we expect a bullish trend on copper.

 



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Monthly Copper Bulletin-MARCH18

MARKET COMMENTARY 

Copper ended lower in March for a third month in a row. Copper was trading between $6532-$7064 before ending at $6740.5. For the first quaret of 2018, LME copper edged down 7 percent, not exactly a good start to the year. Several reasons are behind the decline, the most prominent being trade war anxitous between US and China. Both actions sent a chill through ferrous and nonferrous complexes, as investors became rightly concerned that the world’s two most powerful economies could get embroiled in an escalating trade war. A steady increase in copper exchange stocks also weighed on prices; combined stocks at both LME and SHFE were up roughly 18% this past month and have almost doubled vs. this time last year.

The refined copper market ended 2017 with a deficit of about 163,000 tons, this according to the latest ICSG report, up from the group's original projection of 150,000 tons. The ICSG expects the 2018 deficit to shrink to 105.000 tons, not a particularly high number and one that could easily flip into a surplus if Chinese demand starts to flag. So far in 2018, there is not much evidence of that. On the trade side, China imported a little over 544.000 tons of refined copper in the first two months of 2018 — up 6.3 percent year-on-year.

For the year as a whole, Antaike sees Chinese refined consumption rising by 3.3 percent to 11.1 million tons, while domestic refined output is expected to hit 8.35 million tons, a 4.3percent y-o-y increase. This would mean that China would still need to import roughly 3 mln tons of copper, down 7.5 percent from 2017 levels (this according to Antaike), but a sizable number nonetheless.

 



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Monthly Copper Bulletin-NOVEMBER17

MARKET COMMENTARY

The market was remained strong with increasingly confident about its place in the electric car movement, with producers and traders at the London Metal Exchange Week annual gathering speaking positively about the growth in demand expected from this sector. 

Dollar sagged on early November, knocked away from eight-month highs versus the yen, as Treasury yields slipped on uncertainty over whether the Republicans can pass their tax bill in a timely manner.

 

The supply side,The Indonesian unit of Freeport-McMoRan Inc  has temporarily shut the main supply route to its Papua mine after a shooting incident, a spokesman said, amid escalating tensions between security forces and an armed rebel group in the area in mid of November. Global miner Rio Tinto Plc restarted the smelter at its large Kennecott mine in the United States on 20th of November after a nearly six-week outage but force majeure. Workers for the two largest unions at Southern Copper Corp in Peru said on 22th of November hey had started an indefinite strike, demanding a fair share of profits, while the company said the stoppage had not affected operations. The supply desruptions supported to copper. LME copper edged up $7024 on 27th of November.

China's economy cooled further last month, with industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales missing expectations.  The last week of November copper prices fell as concerns over demand in top consumer China and declining oil prices push investors to sell. LME copper price in November fell by 1.3 percent.

 



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Monthly Copper Bulletin-JULY17

MARKET COMMENTARY 

Copper and other metals have been supported by relief that China's economy is proving more resilient than expected, partly due to easier liquidity ahead of China's national congress later this year which has fed metals demand. A pick-up in the industrial sector helped China post better-than-expected second quarter economic growth as finance and real estate expansions slowed to multi-year lows. China's exports and imports grew much less than expected in July, raising concerns over whether global demand is starting to cool even as major Western central banks consider scaling back years of massive stimulus support. China's copper imports rose 8 percent in July from last year as the availability of credit improved, even as concerns lingered about manufacturing activity.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on 27th July and said it expected to start winding down its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon" in a sign of confidence in the U.S. economy. A gauge of U.S. factory activity slid from a near three-year high in July amid a slowdown in new orders and consumer spending barely rose in the prior month, setting the stage for a moderate economic expansion in the third quarter. Federal Reserve policymakers appeared increasingly wary about recent weak inflation and some called for halting interest rate hikes until it was clear the trend was transitory, according to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's last policy meeting.

The dollar dipped, making dollar priced metals cheaper for non-U.S. investors, while world stocks, seen as a proxy for growth, breached new records on better-than-expected company earnings and strong U.S. jobs data. North Korea were the right response to a series of missile tests, but dialogue was vital to resolve a complex and sensitive issue, now at a "critical juncture". North Korea said it is "carefully examining" plans for a missile strike on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump told the North that any threat to the United States would be met with "fire and fury”.  The dollar firmed this week after North Korea's leader signalled that he would delay plans to fire a missile near Guam, further easing tensions and prompting investors to move back into riskier assets. Also

Copper prices were at their highest since 2014 as rises across most industrial metals triggered pre-set buy orders and a wave of speculative buying and supported by a weaker dollar and increasingly upbeat views about China's economic growth and metals demand. Benchmark copper was 2.5 percent higher at $6,580 on 17th August, its highest since November 2014. But the gains came despite data showing China's home price growth slowed in July, reinforcing expectations that property price growth may stagnate over the course of the year, a negative for industrial commodities. Also metals were set in downward motion on 17th August by weaker than expected U.S. industrial production, which rose only 0.2 percent in July.



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TCMB Currencies (04.12.2020) USD: 7,8614 - EUR: 9,5277 - GBP: 10,5595 Fixing Currencies (03.12.2020) USD: 7,9177 - EUR: 9,6002 - GBP: 10,6105 Fixing Parities EUR / USD: 1,2125 - GBP / USD: 1,3401