Monthly Copper Bulletin - July 2026

Three-month LME copper prices traded within a range of USD 13,103.5–13,934 per tonne during July. Despite significant volatility throughout the month, copper prices ended July at USD 13,803 per tonne, posting a 3.16% monthly gain.

Copper prices came under pressure at the start of the month as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, together with Tehran’s announcement of another closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, weighed on market sentiment and heightened risk aversion.

As the month progressed, weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance. At the same time, growing concerns over global copper supply and continued declines in LME warehouse inventories provided additional support to prices.

Toward the end of July, market sentiment improved further after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The resulting weakness in the U.S. dollar increased the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, including copper. Meanwhile, strong physical buying from China reinforced the upward momentum in prices.

Overall, although the 3M LME copper market remained volatile throughout July due to geopolitical developments and trade policy uncertainty, stronger Chinese demand, tightening supply conditions, falling LME inventories, and a weaker U.S. dollar supported a late-month rally. Consequently, 3M LME copper closed the month at USD 13,803 per metric ton, representing a 3.16% increase compared with the previous month.

MONTHLY REVIEW & INDUSTRY NEWS

     The global refined copper market showed a 18,000 metric tons surplus in May, compared with a 145,000 metric tons deficit in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin.

-        For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 221,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 117,000 metric tons surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said.

-        World refined copper output in May was 2.43 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.41 million metric tons.

     The world's largest copper consumer (China) brought in 281,307 metric tons of the metal in June, up 0.5% from the prior month and the highest for a single month since last September, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

     Peru's copper production, the world's third-largest, rose 2.3% year-on-year in May to about 226,096 metric tons, the country's energy and mines ministry said.

-        In the first five months of the year, copper output rose 3.3% year-on-year to 1.14 million tons, the ministry added in a preliminary report.

-        Peru produced about 2.77 million tons of copper in 2025, a level that has remained flat over the past three years due to a lack of new projects, social conflicts and declining ore grades at major mines, according to industry sources.

     Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.

-        Manufacturing production in the Andean nation was also down 7.2% in the month on a yearly basis, the agency added. The data declined more than expected, economists polled by Reuters anticipated a 2.5% decrease.

     Chilean miner Antofagasta said its copper output fell 9.5% in the first half to 285,000 metric tons due to lower production at two key mines, but affirmed its annual forecast as it expects higher output through the rest of 2026.

     Chile's state-run copper miner Codelco expects production in the coming years to stay similar to current levels, chairman Bernardo Fontaine said, when asked if the company was on track to meet its target of 1.7 million metric tons a year by 2030.

-        The miner is working to recover from a slump in 2022 and 2023 when production fell to two-decade lows. Last year's production at Codelco's own mines stood at 1.33 million tons.

     Chile's copper output from major producers fell sharply in May, according to data published by state copper commission Cochilco, with Codelco's production down 18.3% year-on-year to 106,300 metric tons.

-        Output at BHP-controlled Escondida fell 17.6% to 108,800 tons, while production at the Collahuasi mine dropped 19.3% to 31,000 tons.

     LME stock and price chart are provided below for your information:

DISCLAIMER: This material has been prepared by ER-BAKIR for information purposes only and has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. The material is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, ER-BAKIR makes no guarantee of its accuracy and completeness of factual or analytical data and is not responsible for errors of transmission or reception, nor shall ER-BAKIR be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information.

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