Monthly Copper Bulletin - June 2025
- aaksoy
- Jul 1
- 4 min read
In June 2025, 3 M LME copper prices traded within the range of $9,511 to $9,917, reflecting a month marked by a complex interplay of global trade dynamics and geopolitical developments. The month began with prices at relatively subdued levels due to market pressures stemming from the global trade war initiated by U.S. President Trump. However, copper gained momentum as hopes for a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and China emerged.
During the first week, copper prices rose supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, which typically makes dollar-denominated commodities more attractive. Despite renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and ongoing supply chain concerns limiting gains, copper ended the week up 1.83%, closing at $9,670.5.
The second week started with optimism fueled by progress in U.S.-China trade talks and expectations of resolving the trade war, alongside continued dollar weakness. However, escalating uncertainty over trade tariffs and mounting tensions in the Middle East reversed these gains, causing copper to close the week down 0.24% at $9,647.5.
In the third week, encouraging consumer spending data from China raised hopes for increased metal demand, driving prices higher. Nevertheless, airstrikes between Israel and Iran, regional instability, concerns about global economic growth, and a strengthening U.S. dollar weighed on prices. Copper gave back most of its gains, ending the week with a modest 0.13% increase at $9,660.5.
In the final week, copper surged to a monthly peak of $9,917, supported by a weakening dollar and improved risk sentiment following a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Despite persistent worries about potential U.S. tariffs on copper imports, prices ended the week up 2.26% at $9,879.
On the last trading day of June, copper traded in a narrow range as investors awaited clarity on U.S.-China trade negotiations and tariff implementations. Copper prices closed with a slight loss of 0.01% at $9,878 but finished the month with a strong 4.01% gain overall.
Overall, June’s copper market was shaped by a balancing act between trade optimism and geopolitical risks. Moving forward, copper prices will likely remain sensitive to developments in trade relations, Middle East tensions, and currency fluctuations, which will continue to influence demand and price trends.
MONTHLY REVIEW & INDUSTRY NEWS
The global refined copper market showed a 50,000 metric tons deficit in April, compared with a 12,000 metric tons surplus in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin.
- For the first 4 months of the year, the market was in a 233,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 236,000 metric tons surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said.
- World refined copper output in April was 2.37 million metric tons , while consumption was 2.42 million metric tons.
- When adjusted for changes in inventory in Chinese bonded warehouses, There was a 43,000 metric tons deficit in April compared with a 44,000 metric tons surplus in March, the ICSG said.
Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, rose 9.4% year-on-year in May to 486,574 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.
- Manufacturing production in the Andean nation increased 2.9% in the month on a yearly basis, the agency added.
Kazakhstan's refined copper output in January-May 2025 declined by 1.4% year-on-year to 193,335 metric tons, data from the statistics bureau showed.
China's refined copper production in May climbed by 13.6% from the prior year to 1.25 million metric tons, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
Copper output in Peru, the world's third-largest producer of the red metal, rose 7.91% year-on-year in April to 220,261 metric tons, the Energy and Mines Ministry said.
- The April increase was mainly due to stronger output from Southern Copper, whose output was up 2.8% year-on-year, and MMG Ltd's Las Bambas, which surged 74.5%, the ministry said.
- Peru's copper production is expected to rise slightly this year to around 2.8 million tons, Energy and Mines Minister Jorge Montero said in early June.
Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to rise in the second half of 2025 to an average of $9,890 per metric ton, the bank said in a note, citing fears of a global supply squeeze driven by U.S. tariffs and increased activity in China.
Commerzbank sees 2025 year-end copper price forecast at $9,500/ton.
Zijin Mining says Kamoa-Kakula copper mine to cut 2025 copper output guidance to 370,000–420,000 metric tons due to recent flooding incident.
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