Monthly Copper Bulletin - November 2025
- aaksoy
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
In November, 3M LME copper traded in a range of $10,557.5 to $11,210.5. Prices began the month under pressure as weaker-than-expected factory and trade data from China raised concerns about global growth. Later on, the market found support from several drivers: FOMC minutes and comments from Fed officials revealed differing views within the Committee, while stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls added to policy uncertainty. Additional momentum came from reports that Nvidia may resume chip sales to China, optimism regarding the reopening of the U.S. government, and a pullback in the U.S. dollar.
Amid these developments, copper rallied to a record high of $11,210.5 on the final trading day of November and ended the month up 2.61% at $11,175.5. Persistent concerns over reduced supply from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine this year and next also continued to underpin the market, playing a key role in driving prices to new all-time highs.
Copper prices declined in the first week of November after disappointing Chinese factory data renewed growth concerns, while profit-taking from elevated levels added further pressure. However, a weakening U.S. dollar later in the week helped limit losses. Copper ended the week 1.80% lower at $10,695.
During the second week, optimism surrounding the reopening of the U.S. government and expectations for stronger demand ahead of Chinese economic data pushed copper up to $11,018. Yet profit-taking near the $11,000 threshold, combined with uncertainty around U.S. data, the Fed’s interest-rate outlook, and China’s weak economic readings, weighed on sentiment. Despite volatility, copper finished the week 1.41% higher at $10,846.
Copper retreated from early-week highs of $10,851 in the third week, pressured by concerns in the technology sector and a broader risk-off shift across financial markets as hopes for a near-term Fed rate cut faded. Throughout the week, sentiment was driven by China’s weak demand outlook, a stronger U.S. dollar, and September labor data from the U.S., prompting investors to remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s December policy decision. The metal ended the week 0.63% lower at $10,778.
In the final week of November, copper initially traded under pressure as mixed commentary from Federal Reserve officials created uncertainty surrounding a potential December rate cut. However, expectations shifted rapidly after weaker U.S. economic data increased the likelihood of a rate reduction and triggered outflows from U.S. equities, lending renewed support to industrial metals. Copper surged to a record high of $11,210.5, ending the week 3.69% higher and closing the month with a 2.61% gain at $11,175.5.
MONTHLY REVIEW & INDUSTRY NEWS
China’s copper imports dropped in October, official data showed, as consumers shied away from restocking due to high prices for the metal used in power and construction.
- Copper imports slid to 438,000 metric tons in October from 485,000 tons a month earlier, a 9.7% drop, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
Chinese copper exports are on pace to set a record in 2025, with October shipments set to exceed 100,000 metric tons for only the third time ever, as rising domestic supply and higher foreign prices spur outflows.
Kazakhstan's refined copper output for January-October 2025 rose by 2.2% year-on-year, to 394,914 metric tons, data from the statistics bureau showed.
Copper production in Peru, the world's third-largest producer of the red metal, ticked up 3.7% in September, its energy and mining ministry said.
- Output climbed to 240,995 metric tons in the month.
Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 4.5% year-on-year in September to 456,663 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.
- Manufacturing production in Chile was up 5% in the month on a yearly basis, the agency added, falling short of the 6.9% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters.
Copper production from Chilean state-run miner Codelco slid more than 7% in September, data from copper commission Cochilco showed, falling to 115,600 metric tons.
- Meanwhile production at BHP's Escondida mine, the world's largest copper mine, climbed nearly 17% to 118,600 tons.
- At Collahuasi, another major copper mine jointly run by Glencore and Anglo American, output fell 26% to 38,000 tons.
- Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 7% year-on-year in October to 458,405 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.
- Manufacturing production in Chile was slightly down 0.4% in the month on a yearly basis, the agency also said.
Glencore is planning to close its Horne smelter, Canada's largest copper metal-producing operation, due to environmental issues and the millions of dollars needed to upgrade the facility, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.
- The London-listed miner does not disclose copper metal production figures for its Canadian operation, but industry sources estimate annual output at more than 300,000 metric tons.
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2025 copper price forecast to $10,610 per ton from $10,385, reflecting a fourth-quarter rally.
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